Analyst: Apple To Drop Exclusivity, Allow Carrier Subsidies

Apple may exceed their projected their projected sales goal for the iPhone in 2008 due to a radical change in distribution, according to RBC analyst Mark Abramsky. He thinks Apple will sell up to 14 million iPhones this year, a full 40% higher than his last prediction of 10 million. He also believes that Apple will reach 24 million iPhones sold in 2009.

What's the reason for his optimism? Well for one, he notes that the next generation of iPhone should help to stimulate sales significantly. It also suggests that AT&T will subsidize the 8GB iPhone by up to US$200. However, Apple would most likely have to agree to drop their revenue sharing deal with AT&T, which has been highly profitable for Apple thus far.

Abramsky goes on to say that Apple will most likely scale back exclusivity in some countries, or possibly drop it entirely. Countries that don't currently have the iPhone would be good places to start, but he things that Apple might go further and open the iPhone to T-Mobile customers in the US.

He also entertains the notion of a fully unlocked iPhone well ahead of the end of AT&T and Apple's 5 year exclusivity deal. The advantage to doing this would primarily be sales.

[via Silicon Alley Insider]